How to Measure the Young-Nurse Exodus

In a summary report released September 24th, the Montreal Economic Institute (MEI) made staffing-shortage claims that prompted numerous media calls to NSNU. For several days, nurses’ union leaders from across the country spoke to reporters to provide clarity on a convoluted subject.  

The MEI categorized staffing shortages as a worsening situation, faulting the Canadian systems’ (presumably public health care) inability to retain nurses, especially young nurses. Their data collection showed that in 2013, for every 100 young nurses entering the profession 32 left before the age of 35. By 2022, the most recent year for which the MEI cited data, the number climbed to 40 departures per 100.

The report asserts that Manitoba and British Columbia lost less than a third of their new young nurses in 2022, while many provinces’ ratios were closer to half. MEI claims New Brunswick performed worst of all, losing eight young nurses for every ten who entered the profession. The article states, six in ten nurses under the age of 35 in Nova Scotia are abandoning their professional nursing career.

The MEI report referenced numerous literature reviews and studies including two CFNU citations but failed to connect all the dots that led to their assumptions. The report does not demonstrate  that their findings are accurate.

No doubt there is a nationwide nursing shortage. Whether 60 per cent of young nurses leave Nova Scotia annually, is still up for debate. The province had 12,738 registered nurses in 2023, up 18 per cent from 2022, according to the Nova Scotia College of Nursing. Since April 2022, the largest provider of health services in the province, Nova Scotia Health, has added 372 nurses under 35.

The author of the MEI article maintains that  improved wages and more flexible collective  agreements would alleviate some of the problems, including systematically assigning weekends and evening shifts only to young nurses – a practice that is not proven to be widespread. Wages, for one, have improved significantly since 2022, the timestamp for MEIs data.

Furthermore, the author says nurses need complete freedom to practice their profession the way they want and wherever they want, whether in a public hospital, self-employment in a nurse practitioner clinic, or contractual work through an independent agency. MEI alleges independent nursing agencies provide essential healthcare professionals with more employment options and is highly critical of the “war” on nursing agencies.

Across the country, billions of dollars are being paid out to agencies to fill nursing gaps. Propping up  nursing numbers with temporary workers is not a long-term solution and does not resolve issues that lead to burnout, physical and moral injury. Nor does this practice guarantee improved patient outcomes. This money could and should be better spent on more innovative solutions.

Case in point, the NSNU and other unions are working with the province to establish an internal travel nurse program where nurses have more autonomy and are remunerated at a higher rate of pay for travel in Nova Scotia, while remaining employed in the public healthcare system, complete with pension, benefits, employee rights and union protections. Other pieces of contract language address retention and work-life balance, especially for our rural and remote members.

At the crux of this argument is the lack of consistent data that clearly and objectively tracks career transitions, factors are genuinely indicative of a fluctuating nurse workforce. The MEI’s “suggestions” infer that young nurses are foregoing their licensure, leaving the profession altogether without fully examining the reasoning and presenting all of the facts.

In late 2022, CFNU called on governments to  establish a Pan-Canadian health human resource (HHR) strategy backed by sufficient long-term funding and real accountability. We need data collection and analysis that provides accurate interpretation of information and allows for effective nursing workforce planning. A national body charged with the collection and effective use of data could provide a better roadmap to avoid recurring and drastic nursing shortages.

To further support the call for a national HHR data repository, a Professor in the School of Nursing at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario is currently conducting an environmental scan on the nursing workforce in Canada, which includes exploring the availability of existing data sources, identifying gaps across all data sources and providing recommendations for future data needs. This project is funded by Health Canada and the results will be presented in a report to the Principal Nursing Advisors Task Force (PNATF) and the Committee on Health Workforce (CHW).

Overall, nursing workforce data at the federal, provincial/territorial, and regional levels are collected by a complex network of nursing workforce organizations, including regulatory authorities, CIHI and Stats Canada. A central and accessible office that offers transparent information across a broad spectrum of touchpoints might lessen the proliferation of misinformation.

In short, the Montreal Economic Institute is a probusiness think tank, quick to defend any perceived attack on a for-profit company, like a travel nurse agency. To support their position, they quoted inflated stats on young-nurse employment, attributed the cause to a mismanaged public healthcare system and concluded that travel nursing is a panacea, not a drain on resources.

Numbers don’t usually lie but do large numbers always imply a significant trend, especially without providing context? When we look towards studies and reports to guide policy and impact change, we must import due diligence by considering bias, correlation and causation before jumping to conclusions.


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